Van der Poel or Merlier? Ranking green jersey favourites for Tour de France

The 2025 Tour de France is set to revolutionize the battle for the coveted Green Jersey, with a significant route alteration poised to shift the advantage from pure sprinters to more versatile riders. This strategic re-profiling of the parcours signals a dramatic shift in the points classification dynamics, bringing riders like Mathieu van der Poel into sharper focus as primary contenders, potentially at the expense of traditional speedsters such as Tim Merlier.

Traditionally, the Green Jersey, awarded to the leader of the points classification in Cycling’s premier event, has been a domain for explosive pure sprinters who amass significant points in flat-out bunch finishes. However, early analysis of the 2025 parcours reveals a strategic pivot: a marked increase in arduous summit finishes and a corresponding reduction in the high-speed, mass-finish stages. This compositional change directly challenges the established hierarchy, demanding a broader skillset from those vying for the verdant garment.

This shift plays directly into the hands of riders like Mathieu van der Poel. Renowned for his exceptional versatility across cyclocross, classics, and road racing, Van der Poel possesses the rare ability to contest stages across varied profiles. His strength on undulating terrains, short, punchy climbs, and even in reduced bunch sprints positions him as a prime candidate to consistently accrue points where traditional sprinters might falter. His all-around prowess offers a clear advantage in a Tour de France route designed to reward consistency across diverse challenges.

Conversely, pure sprinters such as Tim Merlier, who rely heavily on securing maximum points in the fewer remaining flat sprint opportunities, face a formidable challenge. The scarcity of these traditional stages means their windows for significant points hauls will be severely limited, potentially forcing them to either adapt their race strategies—perhaps by targeting breakaway points or surviving smaller climbs—or accept a diminished role in the overall points classification. Their path to the Green Jersey becomes considerably steeper, demanding strategic finesse beyond sheer speed.

Cycling experts are keenly observing how teams will adapt their strategies to this new landscape. The Tour de France organizers’ deliberate route design aims to foster a more dynamic and unpredictable points race, moving beyond a singular focus on raw speed. It emphasizes consistency, tactical acumen, and the ability to perform across a broader spectrum of challenges inherent in the sport of professional Cycling, ensuring a more captivating battle for the coveted Green Jersey.

Ultimately, the 2025 Tour de France promises a thrilling spectacle for the Green Jersey. It will be a testament to not just raw power in sprints, but also endurance on climbs, strategic foresight in intermediate points, and the ultimate adaptability of the modern cyclist. The compelling battle between all-rounders like Mathieu van der Poel and specialized sprinters such as Tim Merlier under these new conditions will undoubtedly be one of the most compelling narratives of the upcoming Tour de France, keeping fans on the edge of their seats.